In a tense post-election atmosphere, Venezuela’s President Nicolás Maduro is refusing to step down despite widespread allegations of electoral fraud. Maduro, declared the winner by the National Electoral Commission in the July 28 presidential race, has yet to release the tally sheets, which many believe would reveal his defeat. This refusal has sparked outrage among the opposition and international observers alike.

Maduro’s response has been severe. He has launched a wave of arrests targeting opposition leaders, forcing prominent figures like Edmundo Gonzáles Urrutia and María Corina Machado into hiding. Despite global condemnation, Maduro remains defiant, promising to crush any dissent with an “iron fist.” His regime, though riddled with corruption, remains buoyed by revenue from the oil sector and support from allies like Cuba, Russia, and China.

Diplomatic efforts led by Brazil, Mexico, and Colombia have so far failed to persuade Maduro to release the election results. Some suggest reinstating U.S. sanctions on Venezuela’s oil sector, but concerns about the impact on global oil markets have stalled this option.

For the opposition, the only viable path forward appears to be sustained public protests. However, this strategy carries significant risks, with the potential for violent crackdowns by Maduro’s security forces. The memory of past massacres looms large, and the opposition must weigh the possibility of escalating unrest.

Ultimately, the future hinges on whether the Venezuelan people are willing to take to the streets in large numbers, putting pressure on the regime and forcing the military to make a pivotal decision about where its loyalties lie.