The outlook for diesel, gasoline and jet fuel remains uncertain as global oil markets face supply disruptions, reduced inventories and pressure on refinery production. However, the three fuels are not expected to follow exactly the same path. The International Energy Agency (IEA), the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) and the International Air Transport Association (IATA) point to different levels of risk and different expectations for the months ahead.

1. Diesel: Tight Supply Well Into 2027

Diesel faces the clearest warning of a prolonged shortage. In its October 2026 Oil Market Report, the IEA said global diesel and gasoil supplies are likely to remain tight well into 2027.

Disruptions affecting Middle Eastern and Russian exports have reduced available supplies, while inventories have fallen sharply. Although refinery production is expected to recover, the IEA warns that increased output may not be enough to compensate for the deficit accumulated during 2026.

The agency expects the market to return to a seasonal surplus in the first quarter of 2027, but this would not fully replace the lost inventories. A meaningful recovery in stock levels may not begin until the second half of the year.

Projection: Diesel supply is likely to remain constrained through much of the first half of 2027, with recovery dependent on refinery output and the restoration of disrupted exports.

2. Gasoline: Pressure Now, but a Different Price Outlook

Gasoline is also experiencing pressure, although its outlook differs from diesel’s. According to the EIA’s October 2026 forecast, U.S. gasoline prices rose in September as crude oil costs and refining margins increased.

The EIA expects U.S. retail gasoline prices to remain around September levels in October before gradually declining alongside crude oil prices. However, gasoline refining margins are forecast to remain above seasonal averages into early 2027 because inventories are low.

This distinction matters: high refining margins can keep gasoline prices elevated even if crude oil prices begin to ease. The EIA’s forecast is specific to the United States and should not be treated as a precise prediction for every international market.

Projection: Gasoline could remain under price pressure into early 2027, but current forecasts do not establish that a prolonged shortage comparable to diesel’s will occur. Prices will depend on crude oil costs, refinery availability and regional inventories.

3. Jet Fuel: A Tight Aviation Fuel Market

Jet fuel has experienced serious supply and price pressure of its own. In its June 2026 outlook, IATA reported that jet fuel prices had roughly doubled since late February, following major disruptions to oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz.

The association forecast an average jet fuel price of $152 per barrel for 2026, nearly 70% above the 2025 average of $90. It also warned that limited refinery capacity, inflexible supply chains and low inventories were making the aviation fuel market particularly vulnerable.

IATA’s second-quarter analysis indicated that tight jet fuel conditions could persist into 2027. However, the organization has not established that prices will remain at their 2026 peak or that shortages will be equally severe in every region.

Projection: Jet fuel markets may remain tight into 2027, but the duration and severity of the pressure will depend on the recovery of oil shipments, refinery operations and regional inventories.

Three Fuels, Three Outlooks

The forecasts point to a common challenge but not an identical outcome. Diesel faces the clearest warning of prolonged supply tightness. Gasoline may experience continued price pressure into early 2027, without a confirmed equivalent shortage. Jet fuel remains vulnerable to supply constraints, with tight conditions potentially extending into 2027.

The central uncertainty is how quickly disrupted oil flows and refinery production recover. Until that becomes clearer, the three fuels should be assessed separately rather than assuming that one forecast applies to all.