Following the surprising success of the Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP) left-wing alliance in France’s parliamentary elections on July 7, Belgium is anticipating a new influx of French tax exiles. The election result, which granted a relative majority to the NFP, has triggered a surge in inquiries from wealthy French individuals considering relocation to Belgium, particularly Brussels.

In the past week, bankers and real estate agents in Brussels have reported a significant uptick in consultations from potential French expatriates. “I’ve been consulted a lot by wealthy French people who are once again considering expatriation,” said a manager at a Brussels bank that is a subsidiary of a French group. This sentiment was echoed by a private banker and the director of a large real estate agency, both of whom chose to remain anonymous.

Belgium has historically been a favored destination for French tax exiles. High-end districts in Brussels such as Uccle, Ixelles, and Woluwe-Saint-Pierre have seen property prices driven up by these newcomers, who also stimulate local businesses. Previous waves of French expatriates relocated during periods of significant tax hikes, such as under Prime Minister Alain Juppé in 1995-1997 and President François Hollande’s proposed 75% tax rate in 2012.

The recent concern among wealthy French citizens is driven by fears of a potential reinstatement of the wealth tax (ISF) and changes to property taxation and the prélèvement forfaitaire unique (PFU). The PFU, introduced in 2018, is a single flat-rate tax of 30% on capital income and gains.

“Some of our customers returned to France when the 2018 budget law abolished the ISF. Today, they’re worried about its possible reinstatement,” commented a banker. The trend of inquiries extends beyond Brussels, reaching as far as Geneva, indicating a broader consideration for relocation among France’s affluent population.

As Belgium prepares for another wave of French tax exiles, the impact on the local economy and property market remains to be seen.