Brazil enters the final week before its presidential election with the country divided between two political projects—and with the result potentially carrying significance far beyond Brazil’s borders.

On October 4, Brazilians will vote in the first round of the presidential election. If no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid vote, the two leading candidates will meet again on October 25. The Brazilian electoral authority has registered 12 presidential tickets.

But the campaign has increasingly become a contest between President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, son of former president Jair Bolsonaro.

And the latest polling illustrates just how close the race has become.

A Datafolha survey conducted September 22–23 put Lula at 47% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 45% in a hypothetical second round, with a two-point margin of error. An AtlasIntel poll conducted around the same period put the two statistically tied at 47.7% and 47.4%. Another recent compilation of national polls found Flávio numerically ahead in five runoff surveys and Lula ahead in four.

That makes the final six days critical for both campaigns.

Lula is campaigning on his record in government, social programmes, economic management and democratic institutions. His campaign is also presenting the election as a choice between his political project and the return of the Bolsonaro movement.

Flávio Bolsonaro is attempting to turn his father’s political network into a new presidential campaign. His message centres heavily on public security, conservative policies, taxation, government spending and opposition to Lula’s administration.

The final week is therefore not simply about persuading undecided voters. It is about mobilising existing supporters and reaching voters who may have little enthusiasm for either political camp.

Another battlefield is digital.

Brazil’s electoral authorities are confronting an unprecedented wave of AI-generated political material, including manipulated videos and fabricated claims about candidates and polling. Reuters reported earlier this month that authorities were struggling to contain AI-generated content spreading through social media before the election.

That creates another challenge for voters: distinguishing political campaigning from manufactured information.

But Brazil’s election matters beyond the ballot box.

Across Latin America, political power has shifted repeatedly between left and right during the past decade. Brazil remains particularly important because it is the region’s largest country and economy.

A Bolsonaro victory would place another major Latin American country under a conservative government and strengthen an existing regional network of right-leaning leaders and movements. A Lula victory would leave Brazil as one of the region’s most important governments outside that conservative realignment.

This is where the question of Brazil as the “last big piece” of the right-wing movement becomes interesting—but also complicated.

Brazil is not simply a missing piece on an ideological map. Brazilian voters have their own concerns: crime, purchasing power, inflation, taxes, government spending, corruption, social programmes and the country’s international position.

The election is also taking place within a wider geopolitical environment involving the United States, China, trade and Brazil’s relationship with Donald Trump’s administration.

The result therefore could influence not only domestic policy but also the balance of political and diplomatic relationships across the Americas.

Yet the first round will not necessarily settle the question.

Six days from now, Brazilians will vote.

Three weeks later, they may have to vote again.

And the polls currently provide no basis for declaring the outcome in advance. The available surveys show a contest close enough that small changes in turnout, mobilisation and voter decisions could materially affect the numbers.

Brazil is therefore approaching October 4 not as a country waiting for an inevitable result, but as a country entering one of the most closely watched elections in the Americas.

The first question is who reaches the runoff.

The larger question is what political direction Brazil chooses—and what that choice means for a region that has already experienced a significant political realignment.

Six days remain.