The Darién Gap, once a crucial artery in the migrant journey from South America to the United States, has witnessed a staggering 99% decline in crossings over the past several months. This sharp drop, driven by a combination of U.S. border policy under the Trump administration and Panama’s newly enforced territorial controls, is now reshaping migration patterns across the entire Western Hemisphere.

Panama, acting under pressure from Washington and regional partners, has shut down several unofficial migration corridors through the treacherous Darién jungle. Meanwhile, the U.S. has returned to a hardline stance on immigration, expanding deportation protocols and tightening asylum qualifications.

This dramatic shift is not isolated. Countries up and down the migratory chain — especially Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras, and Costa Rica — are seeing ripple effects.

Mexico: Fewer Arrivals, New Challenges

In Mexico, migration officials report a significant decline in arrivals at their southern border. Areas such as Tapachula, which once served as processing hubs for thousands of asylum seekers, now see a fraction of the usual activity. Shelters that were overcrowded six months ago are reporting empty beds, while human rights organizations shift their focus from emergency support to monitoring for new clandestine routes.

Yet while the drop offers temporary relief for border towns, experts warn it may not be sustainable. “The flow hasn’t stopped. It’s just diverted,” says Daniela Morales, a migration analyst in Mexico City. “We’re already seeing signs of new, more dangerous routes emerging through the Caribbean and along Pacific coastlines.”

Central America Adjusts to the Slowdown

Further south, countries like Guatemala and Honduras — traditional transit nations — are also experiencing the shift. In both countries, border officials report fewer people attempting to head northward. This has temporarily eased the strain on local resources but hasn’t addressed the root causes of migration: poverty, violence, and climate insecurity.

In Honduras, aid groups note a rise in internal displacement and a growing number of migrants choosing to remain in the country or head south to Costa Rica instead of risking uncertain journeys north.

Costa Rica, on the other hand, has seen a slight uptick in arrivals, particularly from Venezuela and Nicaragua. The government has responded by tightening visa requirements and expediting deportation procedures — a rare move for a country known for its relatively open approach to migration.

A Quiet Jungle Doesn’t Mean Less Migration

Despite the celebration in some government circles, many humanitarian organizations are cautious. “It’s important not to confuse a drop in Darién crossings with a drop in desperation,” says Carolina Vélez of the International Rescue Committee. “People will continue to move. The danger now is that we’ll lose sight of them as they take more invisible, more dangerous paths.”

Indeed, preliminary data shows increased movement through sea routes, especially from Colombia’s northern coast toward Nicaragua and the Cayman Islands. This shift could overwhelm coastal authorities and complicate rescue efforts in international waters.

Policy, Pressure, and Unintended Consequences

Analysts also warn that the current model — heavy enforcement without parallel legal pathways — is unsustainable. The Trump administration has lauded the drop in numbers as proof of success, but critics argue that it reflects a dangerous game of displacement rather than resolution.

“There’s a domino effect,” says Andrés Romero, a policy expert at the Latin American Center for Migration Studies. “When one door closes, two windows open — and they often lead through darker, more perilous terrain.”

As the jungle falls silent, a broader shift is unfolding — one that affects governments, humanitarians, and, most critically, the lives of thousands who remain on the move.