A recent plot to assassinate Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro involving a Navy SEAL, CIA operatives, and a $15 million bounty seems straight out of a Hollywood script. This alleged conspiracy, however, underscores the complex and strained relations between the U.S. and Venezuela, once again raising questions about Maduro’s motives and what he stands to gain from this dramatic narrative.

Late last year, a U.S.-Venezuelan prisoner exchange gave hope for better relations between the two countries. Ten Americans were freed in exchange for a close Maduro ally, signaling a potential thaw in their longstanding standoff. Yet, nearly a year later, those hopes have dimmed. The Venezuelan government has arrested four U.S. citizens and several foreign nationals, accusing them of being part of a CIA-led conspiracy to overthrow Maduro, claims both the U.S. and Spain have firmly denied.

The details of the alleged plot are sensational. Venezuelan authorities claim the captured foreigners, including two Spaniards and a Czech national, intended to kill Maduro, lured by the U.S. government’s $15 million reward for information leading to his arrest. According to Venezuela’s Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello, the plot involved 400 seized U.S.-made firearms and was orchestrated by a Navy SEAL named Wilbert Castañeda. The U.S. government confirmed Castañeda is an active Navy member, but deny any involvement in a coup attempt, saying he was on personal travel to Venezuela.

This is not the first time Maduro has accused the U.S. of attempting to assassinate him. He has previously claimed, without evidence, that the CIA and former President Trump orchestrated a 2018 assassination attempt using an explosive-laden drone. Maduro’s government also accused U.S. citizen Matthew Heath of espionage in 2020. These repeated accusations play into a well-worn narrative in Venezuela, where the CIA is seen as a convenient villain with a history of meddling in Latin America.

While some in the Venezuelan government believe there could be a grain of truth to the claims, others remain skeptical. Many view the allegations as a political move by Maduro, designed to distract from Venezuela’s political turmoil. With international scrutiny on Venezuela’s recent disputed elections, Maduro may be using the arrests as leverage, hoping to quiet U.S. criticisms and negotiate a reduction of sanctions. 

Maduro’s ultimate goal is unclear, especially as no close associates of his are currently detained in the U.S. to trade for. However, it is likely that Maduro sees this as an opportunity to pressure the U.S. into lifting economic sanctions, particularly on Venezuela’s oil sector. With Venezuela’s economy in shambles, lifting these sanctions could provide a much-needed lifeline.

As the U.S. prepares for its own elections, the next administration will face tough decisions on how to respond to Maduro’s moves. Whether the detentions lead to a new round of negotiations or further strain relations, it’s clear that the situation has become another pawn in the long and complicated U.S.-Venezuela relationship.