Cuba is experiencing a mass exodus of its citizens, with experts estimating a significant population decline in recent years. Deisy Herrera, a 61-year-old lab chemist, tearfully recalls the moment her two sons left the island in search of a better future. Like many Cuban families, Herrera’s was torn apart by the island’s worsening economic conditions, which have driven a wave of migration, largely to the United States.

This current migration wave, surpassing previous exoduses like the 1980 Mariel boatlift, has sparked debate among population experts. Economist Juan Carlos Albizu-Campos recently estimated that Cuba’s population had plunged by 18% between 2022 and 2023, a loss of over 2 million people, labeling it a “migratory stampede.” His figures suggest that the country’s population has dropped to 8.62 million, a figure far below the official estimate of 10.1 million provided by Cuba’s statistics agency, ONEI.

The disagreement over exact numbers comes down to technical factors, with both sides agreeing that a new census is needed. However, the population count has been postponed until at least 2025. While the extent of the migration remains uncertain, what is clear is that the majority of those leaving are young and capable workers, leaving behind an aging population.

Cuba’s birth rate has also plummeted, exacerbating the demographic crisis. According to recent data from ONEI, one in four Cubans is now over the age of 60, adding pressure to an already strained healthcare system and economy. With fewer young people staying on the island, the nation faces an increasing burden of care for its elderly citizens.

Antonio Aja, director of the University of Havana’s Center for Demographic Studies, highlights how Cuba’s demographic trends are unique. While other countries in Europe and South America replenish their populations through immigration, Cuba’s population is dwindling, and its youth are departing in search of better opportunities abroad.