Despite escalating trade tensions and a fresh wave of steep U.S. tariffs, China’s export sector has remained unexpectedly strong in April. Data from Chinese port authorities shows that 6.3 million containers were processed in the seven days leading up to April 20—a 10% increase compared to the same week last year. This growth marks nearly three months of sustained expansion in trade flows, surprising many analysts who had anticipated a sharp downturn amid the tariff standoff.

A key reason behind China’s resilience lies in strategic delays and exemptions rolled out by the Trump administration. Most notably, a last-minute decision earlier this month to exclude smartphones, laptops, and other electronics from new tariffs provided much-needed relief for Chinese exporters. These products account for over $100 billion in annual exports, making up a major portion of China’s global trade volume. This pause in tariff enforcement, although temporary, gave exporters a crucial window to move goods before further restrictions kick in.

This exemption was largely driven by pressure from major U.S. tech companies, including Apple, which rely heavily on Chinese manufacturing. U.S. officials hinted that this category of goods could still face tariffs later in the year, but for now, the delay has helped keep trade volumes flowing.

Additionally, the 90-day delay in implementing reciprocal tariffs against other countries has allowed China to divert some of its exports to alternative markets. Sea freight continues to dominate export methods, with higher-value items shipped by air and others via rail to Europe and nearby Asian markets.

However, not all signals point to smooth sailing. There are signs that the pressure from tariffs is beginning to weigh on logistics and supply chains. According to port officials in Los Angeles, bookings on mega container ships dropped by 64% in early April. Some global brands have even paused shipments from China altogether, waiting to see how the trade situation evolves. This suggests the current surge could be temporary, driven more by companies rushing to get ahead of potential disruptions than long-term confidence.

Looking ahead, further changes are on the horizon. Beginning May 2, the U.S. plans to scrap the “de minimis” exemption that currently allows imports under $800 from China to enter duty-free. This change will impact consumers who purchase affordable products from fast-growing platforms like Temu and Shein, likely increasing prices for American shoppers and slowing demand.

Economists at the Australia & New Zealand Banking Group warn that while U.S. exports to China are falling quickly, the decline in Chinese imports into the U.S. is expected to be more gradual. This imbalance could actually widen the trade deficit, not reduce it, countering one of the main goals of the tariff strategy.

In short, while China’s exports have weathered the latest round of tariffs better than expected, the future remains uncertain. Temporary policy decisions and trade workarounds may keep volumes up in the short term, but the risk of deeper economic fallout remains high if the tariff war intensifies.