Two groundbreaking studies published in Nature Climate Change have sent a stark warning: the world is likely to have already breached the 1.5-degree Celsius warming limit set by the Paris Climate Agreement. This alarming conclusion suggests that global efforts to combat climate change may be too little, too late, while renowned climate scientist James Hansen has gone even further, predicting that global temperatures will exceed 2 degrees Celsius in the coming decades.

Scientific Evidence: Are We Past the 1.5-Degree Limit?

The studies, led by Alex Cannon of Environment and Climate Change Canada and Emanuele Bevacqua from the Helmholtz Centre in Germany, highlight that the 12 consecutive months of record-breaking global temperatures point to a 60% to 80% probability that the 1.5-degree target has already been breached. If the world experiences 18 months at or above this threshold, the breach would be virtually certain.

Using historical climate data and predictive modeling, the studies suggest that 2024 is likely part of the first long-term period of 1.5-degree warming, making it nearly impossible to reverse the trajectory within the Paris framework.

The Consequences of Exceeding the Limit

Surpassing 1.5 degrees would have devastating effects on global ecosystems and human populations. Scientists warn of:

• More intense heatwaves, wildfires, and droughts
• Rising sea levels threatening coastal cities
• Coral reef destruction and biodiversity loss
• Increased frequency of extreme weather events

At 2 degrees of warming, the risks become even more catastrophic. Ice sheet melting would accelerate, leading to unprecedented sea level rise, displacing millions of people. Agricultural yields would decline, intensifying food insecurity, and many regions would become uninhabitable due to extreme heat.

Can Rapid Climate Action Still Make a Difference?

While these studies paint a bleak picture, climate scientists emphasize that urgent and aggressive emissions cuts could still help slow down warming and prevent the worst-case scenarios. Richard Allen, a climate science professor at the University of Reading, stresses the importance of doubling down on climate policies to avoid exceeding 2 degrees.

However, political challenges remain. Some nations, including Argentina and Indonesia, are reportedly considering withdrawing from the Paris Agreement, following the precedent set by Donald Trump’s earlier U.S. exit. Such moves could further weaken international efforts to tackle the crisis.

A Critical Crossroads: The Future of Climate Policy

While the 1.5-degree target may no longer be achievable, scientists caution against climate defeatism. Daniela Schmidt, an Earth sciences professor at the University of Bristol, warns that fixating on 1.5 degrees as an absolute failure could lead to reduced action, making the situation even worse.

As James Hansen and other climate experts point out, the next critical threshold is 2 degrees Celsius. If current trends continue, we could cross that line within two decades. The world is at a critical juncture—without immediate, radical policy shifts, the climate crisis will spiral into irreversible damage. The question remains: Will global leaders act before it’s too late?