Honduras has issued a stark warning to the United States, threatening to expel US troops in response to President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed mass deportations of undocumented immigrants. The move, announced by Honduran President Xiomara Castro in her New Year’s message, marks a turning point in the Central American nation’s relations with the US. Castro emphasized that US military bases, including Soto Cano Airbase, would lose their purpose if deportations proceed, signaling a reconsideration of military cooperation.

Soto Cano Airbase, operational since the 1980s, serves as a strategic hub for US military operations in Central America, hosting over 1,000 personnel. The base supports disaster relief, counter-narcotics missions, and surveillance efforts along key drug trafficking routes. While its presence provides benefits to Honduras, such as economic contributions and emergency aid, critics argue that its justification is undermined by past US support for corrupt Honduran leaders, including former President Juan Orlando Hernandez, now jailed for drug crimes.

President Castro’s statement reflects broader concerns about the mass deportation of up to 250,000 Hondurans, a significant number for a country heavily reliant on remittances. Nearly 27% of Honduras’s GDP comes from money sent by its citizens abroad, many of whom reside in the US. The deportations would strain Honduras’s already fragile economy and overwhelm its social systems. Deputy Foreign Minister Tony Garcia has described the potential influx as unsustainable, underscoring the high stakes for Honduras.

Experts suggest that the threat to expel US troops may be more of a negotiating tactic than an imminent policy change. Honduras, while asserting its sovereignty, faces significant challenges in influencing US policies. Analysts like Eric Olson from the Wilson Center warn that Honduras risks damaging bilateral relations, especially under a Republican administration. While the US values Soto Cano, its strategic importance has waned, and missions like counter-narcotics could be shifted elsewhere if needed.

The confrontation highlights shifting dynamics in Central American geopolitics. Honduras’s stance challenges decades of US dominance in the region and aligns with growing resistance to US intervention. However, experts caution that the dispute could deepen tensions and lead to strained ties. With Trump’s deportation plans still unclear, both nations face a critical moment in defining their future relationship.