The dynamics of global trade are reshaping the shipping industry, prompting a shift from massive container ships to smaller, more versatile vessels. This change is driven by trade rerouting away from China, environmental regulations, and geopolitical uncertainties impacting shipping routes.

According to shipping broker Braemar, only six ultra-large ships capable of carrying over 17,000 TEUs (20-foot equivalent units) are expected to be delivered in 2025, compared to 17 in 2020. Meanwhile, mid-sized vessels between 12,000 and 16,999 TEUs are in high demand, with 83 scheduled for delivery in 2025—nearly five times the figure from five years ago. These “workhorses,” as industry experts call them, align better with current market needs.

“The global trade landscape has shifted,” says Peter Sand, chief analyst at Xeneta. With supply chains diversifying into smaller manufacturing hubs in Asia, such as Vietnam and India, the need for the largest vessels to fill up at just a few major ports has diminished. As Sand notes, “Economics dictate ship size—if you can’t fill the largest vessels, you’re losing money.”

Geopolitical disruptions have also played a role. Attacks on vessels in the Red Sea, linked to broader regional conflicts, have highlighted the vulnerabilities of fixed shipping routes like the Suez Canal. The rise in fuel price uncertainties and impending environmental regulations adds another layer of complexity. Many shipowners are hesitant to invest in ultra-large ships without clarity on future sustainability requirements from the International Maritime Organization.

Despite these trends, demand for the largest ships saw a modest resurgence in 2024, driven by robust profits in the shipping sector. Mediterranean Shipping Company, for example, ordered 10 ships capable of carrying 21,000 TEUs. However, the challenges of navigating critical routes like the Panama Canal and adapting to macroeconomic shocks underscore the value of smaller vessels.

As William MacLachlan of HFW explains, smaller ships provide flexibility and lower financial risk in an unpredictable market. “For many, it’s a practical investment decision,” he concludes, reflecting a broader industry pivot to adaptability and efficiency.

This shift marks the end of an era of ever-larger ships dominating global trade and signals a new chapter where agility trumps sheer scale.