Aleppo, Syria — Syrian and Russian jets have ramped up airstrikes across northwestern Syria after a major offensive by rebel forces resulted in significant territorial gains in Aleppo and Idlib provinces. The rebel alliance, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), has captured over 40 towns, including a critical military base and positions along the strategic M5 highway.

The offensive, dubbed “Deterrence of Aggression,” represents the largest challenge to President Bashar al-Assad’s government since Russian intervention helped stabilize his regime nearly a decade ago. Video footage verified by international outlets shows rebel fighters occupying the main terminal of Aleppo’s airport, underscoring the rapid gains made by opposition forces​

Geopolitical Implications for Russia

Russia, a key ally of the Assad regime, has responded swiftly with intensified aerial bombardments on rebel-held areas, including Atarib and Darat Izza. Civilian casualties have risen, with reports of Russian airstrikes killing at least 15 civilians in western Aleppo and several more in Idlib​​.

The timing of this escalation presents challenges for Russia, which is already stretched thin by its involvement in other conflicts, particularly in Ukraine and its ongoing regional tensions with NATO. The sudden resurgence of hostilities in Syria could strain Russia’s military resources and diplomatic focus, potentially weakening its position in Ukraine. Analysts warn that a prolonged Syrian campaign could divert critical military assets, such as advanced aircraft and special forces, away from Europe, where Moscow faces mounting pressure from Western sanctions and military support for Ukraine​

A Broader Regional Shift

Iran, another major backer of Assad, has also been impacted, as one of its senior military advisors was reportedly killed in the Aleppo clashes. Meanwhile, Turkey, which controls parts of northern Syria and supports certain rebel factions, is closely monitoring the developments. Ankara fears a new wave of refugees and the potential destabilization of its border regions​.

As the situation unfolds, the question remains whether Russia can maintain its military dominance in Syria while managing other geopolitical crises. A prolonged Syrian conflict may force Moscow to reconsider its strategic priorities, potentially opening avenues for Western-backed forces in Ukraine to capitalize on reduced Russian focus.

For now, both the rebels and the Assad regime appear locked in a deadly battle for control of northern Syria, with the outcome poised to reshape regional power dynamics and Russia’s role in the Middle East and beyond.