The Biden administration’s decision to authorize Ukraine to use American-made long-range missiles (ATACMS) against targets within Russian territory has sent shockwaves through the global diplomatic landscape. With just weeks remaining in his presidency, President Joe Biden’s move is seen by many as a high-stakes gamble in support of Kyiv. However, it raises significant questions about its potential impact on the war and how it might reshape dynamics ahead of President-elect Donald Trump’s return to the White House on January 20, 2025.

A Bold Move in a Pivotal Moment

The decision comes amid intensified conflict, including massive missile and drone attacks by Russia and reports of 12,000 North Korean troops deployed to the Kursk region. Ukrainian forces, which have already made incursions into Kursk, now have the green light to strike deeper into Russian territory. Previously, Ukraine had only been permitted to use the ATACMS to target Russian positions in Crimea.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy hailed the move as a crucial step, albeit without explicitly confirming Kyiv’s plans. “Strikes are not made with words,” Zelenskyy remarked in a Sunday address. “The missiles will speak for themselves.”

What Does This Mean for Ukraine’s War Efforts?

The ATACMS missiles, with a range of 300 kilometers (190 miles), could enable Ukraine to disrupt Russian supply chains and strike troop concentrations, particularly around Kursk, where Ukrainian and North Korean forces are engaged in heavy fighting.

Military analysts see the decision as a game-changer. Timothy Ash, an associate fellow in the Russia and Eurasia program at Chatham House, notes that the missiles could provide Ukraine with much-needed leverage in any potential negotiations. “This capability forces Moscow to reconsider its strategy and offers Kyiv greater bargaining power,” Ash said.

However, the window for Ukraine to capitalize on this opportunity is narrow. With President-elect Trump promising a swift negotiation to end the war, Ukraine’s leadership faces mounting pressure to achieve significant battlefield gains before a potential shift in U.S. policy.

Russian and Global Reactions

The Kremlin has condemned the decision as an escalatory provocation, accusing Washington of direct involvement in the conflict. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov warned of a “new round of tension,” while Russian lawmaker Maria Butina suggested the move risks igniting World War III.

International reactions remain mixed. While Western allies like the United Kingdom have supported Ukraine’s right to self-defense, the move risks straining relations with nations advocating for de-escalation. The involvement of North Korean troops, allegedly stationed in Kursk to support Moscow, adds another layer of complexity, further internationalizing the conflict.

What Lies Ahead Before Trump’s Inauguration?

The remaining nine weeks of the Biden administration could prove decisive. Ukraine is likely to launch targeted strikes to weaken Russian positions in Kursk and elsewhere. The success of these operations could alter the trajectory of the war and potentially shape Trump’s negotiation strategy.

However, uncertainty looms over continued U.S. support. Trump’s campaign rhetoric focused on ending the war swiftly, raising questions about whether his administration will sustain the robust military aid that Ukraine has relied upon.

A Tipping Point in the Conflict?

As Ukraine braces for its next moves, the geopolitical stakes have never been higher. Biden’s decision has opened the door to new possibilities for Kyiv, but it also risks further entrenching the conflict. The next two months could determine not only the war’s outcome but also the future of U.S. involvement in the region.

With Ukraine racing against the clock and Moscow warning of dire consequences, the world watches as a high-stakes gamble unfolds on the international stage.