Tropical Storm Rafael is gaining strength in the Caribbean Sea, with forecasters predicting it will reach hurricane status by the time it makes landfall in western Cuba on Wednesday. The storm, which formed Monday, is currently positioned approximately 105 miles south-southwest of Kingston, Jamaica, and 265 miles southeast of Grand Cayman, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC).

Rafael is expected to unleash severe winds, torrential rainfall, and dangerous storm surges across Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and parts of Cuba, which have already been placed under hurricane warnings. As it approaches Cuba, the storm may intensify into a high-end Category 1 hurricane, impacting the Isle of Youth and Cuban provinces such as Cienfuegos, Villa Clara, Sancti Spiritus, and Ciego de Avila. The NHC has also issued tropical storm warnings for Jamaica and watch alerts for the Florida Keys, with impacts expected there starting Wednesday evening.

The storm has already brought heavy rains and gusty winds to parts of Jamaica, prompting the country’s meteorological service to warn of the risk of flash flooding and mudslides, especially in the island’s mountainous regions. Schools in Jamaica have closed for in-person classes as a precaution, while residents across the region prepare for potentially severe conditions.

Rafael could bring 3 to 6 inches of rain to areas of western Cuba and the Cayman Islands, while parts of Jamaica and Cuba may experience up to 9 inches, heightening the likelihood of flooding and landslides. In addition to the rain, storm surges are expected, with Cuba possibly seeing water levels up to 9 feet above normal tide levels, and the Cayman Islands up to 3 feet.

While Rafael’s exact path remains uncertain, some models project it will track northwest toward the US Gulf Coast, where the storm could affect Florida and the Southeast later this week. Other forecasts suggest a leftward turn in the Gulf, possibly weakening the storm or redirecting it toward northeastern Mexico. Although Rafael is not expected to reach the intensity of previous storms like Hurricanes Helene and Milton due to Cuba’s terrain and adverse atmospheric conditions, it still poses a serious threat to the Caribbean.

Typically, tropical storm activity diminishes in November, and landfalls on the US Gulf Coast are rare this late in the season. Nevertheless, the NHC urges residents along the Gulf Coast to monitor updates closely as Rafael moves northward, potentially impacting coastal areas with rough seas, rain, and gusty winds.

Rafael’s approach underscores the ongoing threat of late-season storms and serves as a reminder of the importance of preparation and vigilance during hurricane season.