Vilnius, Lithuania – November 26, 2024

A fiery cargo plane crash near Vilnius Airport on Monday has prompted speculation about potential sabotage or hybrid warfare, as German and Lithuanian authorities investigate the incident. The crash occurred just kilometers from the airport, with the aircraft skidding several hundred meters before colliding with a residential property. While one crew member tragically lost their life, the remaining three onboard, including the pilot, survived. The 12 occupants of the house were safely evacuated.

The Boeing 737-400, operated by Swiftair under contract for DHL, was en route from Leipzig, Germany, to Vilnius when the accident occurred. DHL confirmed the incident, stating that the plane had made a forced landing approximately one kilometer from the airport. The cause of the crash remains unknown, and investigations are underway.

Speculations of Hybrid Warfare

Speaking on Germany’s ZDF network, Chancellor Olaf Scholz noted that the incident is being closely examined for signs of hybrid warfare. “We can’t say at the moment, but it could be so – there are very many bad forms of hybrid warfare that we are seeing in Germany,” Scholz remarked, pointing to growing concerns of unconventional threats.

In Lithuania, national security adviser Kęstutis Budrys drew connections between the crash and prior incidents of alleged sabotage. Earlier this month, the Wall Street Journal reported on incendiary devices planted on cargo and passenger flights in Germany and the UK, purportedly linked to covert Russian operations targeting NATO infrastructure. Budrys emphasized that such actions are part of an escalating campaign to harm infrastructure and potentially endanger lives.

Lithuanian counter-intelligence chief Darius Jauniškis echoed this concern but cautioned against premature conclusions, stating, “We cannot reject the possibility of terrorism. … But at the moment, we can’t make attributions or point fingers.”

Early Investigation Findings

The two black boxes from the aircraft, which record critical flight data, have been recovered and are being analyzed, according to Lithuania’s Ministry of Justice. Preliminary assessments from Lithuanian police point to technical faults or human error as the most likely causes but have not ruled out terrorism.

The head of Lithuanian Police, Arūnas Paulauskas, highlighted the complexities of the investigation: “While initial indications point to mechanical failure or pilot error, the broader context of regional threats cannot be ignored.”

Crash Details

Vilnius Mayor Valdas Benkunskas noted the near-catastrophic impact of the crash, which narrowly missed a house, striking its courtyard instead. “The situation could have been much worse,” Benkunskas told local media.

The aircraft’s sudden descent and the fire that followed have left investigators searching for clues. Swiftair and DHL both emphasized their cooperation with authorities and the importance of uncovering the cause.

Geopolitical Implications

The incident occurs amid heightened tensions in Eastern Europe, with NATO countries wary of unconventional threats. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov dismissed allegations of Russian involvement as “unintelligible hoaxes.”

As investigators piece together the sequence of events, Lithuanian and German authorities remain vigilant, considering both technical and geopolitical dimensions to the crash.