Oranjestad, Aruba – In a significant development for Aruba’s political arena, the Electoral Council announced that MIA and UPP will not be on the ballot for the December 9th election. Their failure to gather the minimum required 587 support votes underscores a tightening of public confidence, leaving 11 parties to vie for influence in what is shaping up to be a pivotal election.

The disqualification of these two parties signals a shift from the 2021 election, which saw 12 participating parties, and from 2017, which included only eight. Despite MIA and UPP’s concerted efforts to rally public backing, their disqualification reveals an electorate that may be increasingly discerning. Notably, the December ballot will also be missing two previously active parties: POR, under Allan Howell’s leadership, and Pueblo Prome, directed by Michael Williams.

The current political dynamics reflect a fractured yet substantial opposition, comprising AVP with five seats, MAS with two, Acción21 with one, and independent member Gerlien Croes with one, creating a formidable nine-seat opposition bloc. Yet, RAIZ, with its two seats, has effectively tipped the balance by disrupting MEP’s aspirations for a stable majority, despite MEP’s nine seats and independent support from Rycond do Nascimento. The resultant deadlock has persisted for the past seven and a half years, highlighting Aruba’s increasingly complex coalition politics.

Former Parliamentary President and MEP member Edgard Vrolijk recently hinted at the formation of a coalition among AVP, RAIZ, MAS, Acción21, and Croes, indicating a possible realignment of power that could transform Aruba’s political landscape. The possibility of this coalition gained traction when Raymichelline Raymond of RAIZ openly stated that her party sees no potential for future collaboration with MEP, signaling RAIZ’s firm stance for the upcoming election and beyond.

UPP’s struggle to gain momentum was evident from the outset, as its leader Giovanni Trim faced steep odds. With only four candidates on the party’s list, both Trim and Helen Croes of MIA pitched their reformist agendas, but the parties managed to mobilize only eight confirmed supporters, a clear signal of the public’s skepticism.

UPP, established by well-known political figure Booshi Wever, has historically struggled to solidify its support base. In 2017, it formed an alliance with PPA but garnered just 656 votes, while in 2021, despite Wever’s appearance as a third-listed candidate, UPP’s leadership under Seriada Pemberton-Leonard attracted only 132 votes. The party’s most recent efforts yielded a mere 89 votes under Trim’s leadership, further underscoring its waning influence.

Newcomer MIA’s campaign failed to gain traction or generate political enthusiasm, a missed opportunity in an election season marked by shifting alliances and a skeptical electorate. Meanwhile, CURPA and HTC secured enough signatures to meet the Electoral Council’s requirements, yet historical data suggests that initial support signatures may not predict election-day results; in 2021, CURPA and HTC gathered support but received only 309 and 249 votes, respectively.

As Aruba approaches the December election, the narrowed field of 11 parties and RAIZ’s commitment to new alliances underscore a critical moment for the nation. With these emerging political dynamics, the island’s electorate stands poised to reshape the balance of power in Aruba’s political future.