Jackson Merrill of the San Diego Padres has overtaken Pittsburgh Pirates pitcher Paul Skenes as the favorite for the National League Rookie of the Year award. Merrill’s impressive August performance has shifted the odds dramatically, making him the new frontrunner at -800, a stark contrast from Skenes’ previous -1200 lead at the All-Star break.

Skenes, the 2023 No. 1 overall draft pick, has had an outstanding season with an 8-2 record, a 2.23 ERA, and a 0.95 WHIP. Despite his strong performance, the Pirates, who sit at the bottom of the standings, have been cautious with their young ace. Skenes’ dominance on the mound made him the clear favorite for the Rookie of the Year award earlier in the season.

However, Merrill has spent the entire season in the majors and has become a key player in the Padres’ push for a wild-card spot. In August alone, Merrill hit .303 with seven home runs and a .969 OPS, bringing his season totals to a .289 average, 21 home runs, and 79 RBIs. His contributions have propelled San Diego into playoff contention and shifted the Rookie of the Year narrative in his favor.

While Skenes still leads Merrill in Baseball Reference’s version of wins above replacement (WAR), Merrill has the edge in FanGraphs’ WAR calculations. This statistical battle underscores the close competition between the two rookies, each excelling in their respective roles.

Interestingly, while the NL Rookie of the Year race has taken an unexpected turn, the other major award races have remained consistent. Favorites like Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani for MVP, and Tarik Skubal and Chris Sale for Cy Young, continue to dominate their respective categories. As the season nears its end, all eyes will be on Merrill and Skenes to see who ultimately claims the Rookie of the Year title.

**Trivia:** The last San Diego player to win the Rookie of the Year was Benito Santiago in 1987, marking the longest current drought of any NL team for that award.