The Palestinian armed group Hamas is in “a state of shock” following the assassination of its political leader, Ismail Haniyeh, according to top officials. Haniyeh, 62, was killed in an Israeli strike early Wednesday morning in Iran. As a prominent figure since the late 1980s, Haniyeh was widely considered the overall leader of Hamas.

Haniyeh, head of the political bureau based in Qatar, was crucial in Hamas’ outreach to regional governments and its alliance with Tehran and proxy groups across the Middle East. Despite being wanted by Israeli officials for months, he continued to operate relatively openly, making three trips to Iran since the 7 October attacks in Israel. His protection team had recently vetoed a proposed trip to Lebanon due to security concerns.

Haniyeh’s assassination has expedited an internal power struggle within Hamas, as his succession was already a topic of discussion. Hamas’ constitution prevents any political bureau chief from serving more than two terms, with a new candidate expected to be chosen by 2025. His death could now intensify rivalries within the movement between those favoring a negotiated settlement and extremist elements more closely aligned with Iran.

Despite the leadership turmoil, a Hamas official emphasized that “Hamas is an idea, Hamas is an ideology. The killing of the leader will not change Hamas or make it surrender.” This statement suggests an effort to downplay internal tensions. However, CIA Director Bill Burns recently noted emerging rifts among senior Hamas commanders, with some advocating for more flexibility in negotiations and acceptance of a hostage-ceasefire deal.

The leading candidates to succeed Haniyeh include Yahya Sinwar, Khaled Meshaal, and Zaher Jabareen. Sinwar, the group’s head in Gaza and believed to be behind the 7 October attacks, is considered the frontrunner. Meshaal, previously chief of the political bureau, has a strained relationship with Iran. Jabareen, responsible for Palestinian prisoners, could play a key role in prisoner swap negotiations with Israel.

The election of a new leader is likely to be a protracted process, complicated by the scattered and wanted status of political bureau members across the Middle East. The response of Hamas to Haniyeh’s death will be closely watched, as it could indicate the extent of damage to its military infrastructure and impact ongoing peace negotiations with Israel. Haniyeh’s death removes a key figure seen as capable of brokering a deal due to his diplomatic relations in the region.