In a dramatic shift in French politics, the far-right National Rally (RN) party, led by Marine Le Pen, secured a leading position in the first round of legislative elections. This outcome positions the RN to potentially form a government and claim the prime minister’s post, with Le Pen’s 28-year-old protégé, Jordan Bardella, poised to take the role if the party secures an absolute majority in the upcoming second round.

Electoral Landscape

Projections from prominent French polling firms placed the RN at 33.2-33.5% of the vote, ahead of the left-wing New Popular Front alliance with 28.1-28.5%, and President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist camp trailing with 21.0-22.1%. These results forecast a substantial presence for the RN in the 577-seat National Assembly, although projections varied on whether they would achieve the 289 seats needed for an absolute majority. Ipsos estimated 230-280 seats, Ifop predicted 240-270, while Elabe suggested a possible majority with 260-310 seats.

Macron’s Response and Political Implications

President Macron, who called these snap elections after his centrist forces were defeated in the European Parliament elections, now faces a precarious political future. Macron’s alliance is expected to secure a smaller minority in parliament, weakening his influence for the remaining three years of his term. In a statement, he urged a “broad” alliance against the far right, emphasizing the need for tactical voting to prevent RN candidates from winning seats in the second round.

Prime Minister Gabriel Attal, likely to resign if the RN prevails, echoed Macron’s sentiment, declaring that the RN should not receive “a single vote” in the runoff. Raphael Glucksmann, a key figure in the left-wing alliance, stressed the urgency of the situation, saying, “We have seven days to spare France from catastrophe.”

Voter Turnout and Historical Significance

The high turnout of 65%, significantly above the 47.5% in the 2022 polls, underscores the critical nature of this election. Macron noted that the turnout reflected “the importance of this vote for all our compatriots and the desire to clarify the political situation.” The potential rise of an anti-immigration and eurosceptic RN government marks a significant turning point in French history, being the first time a far-right party could take power since World War II.

Marine Le Pen, striving to distance the RN from its extremist origins, emphasized the necessity of securing an absolute majority to appoint Bardella as prime minister. Bardella himself expressed his intent to be the “prime minister of all French,” a scenario that would create a tense period of “cohabitation” with Macron, who intends to serve out his term until 2027.

Future Prospects and Economic Impact

If the RN fails to secure an absolute majority, France could face months of political paralysis and complex negotiations to establish a sustainable government. Jean-Luc Melenchon, leader of the hard-left, described Macron’s centrist alliance’s performance as a “heavy and undisputable” defeat. The Eurasia Group, a risk analysis firm, projected that the RN would likely fall short of an absolute majority, leading to at least a year of a blocked National Assembly and potentially a technocratic government with limited governance capacity.

The snap election has already induced economic uncertainty, with the Paris stock exchange experiencing its largest monthly decline in two years, dropping 6.4% in June. This turmoil could also undermine Macron’s international standing, particularly his role in supporting Ukraine amid the Russian invasion.

As France approaches the decisive second round on July 7, the outcome remains uncertain, with the potential for significant political and economic ramifications.