A significant election in Venezuela this month could alter the lives of millions of migrants and influence U.S. President Joe Biden’s administration. For the first time in a decade, an opposition candidate, Edmundo Gonzalez, is posing a credible challenge to Nicolas Maduro’s authoritarian government.

Over seven million Venezuelans have fled economic and political turmoil since 2014. Many, like Maria Alvarez, now live in Colombia but yearn to return home. Alvarez left Venezuela in 2017 and dreams of reuniting her family there. “I just dream of going home and building a life there,” she told CNN.

Maduro’s grip on power has been challenged after a decade, with Gonzalez leading by twenty percentage points in polls. This follows Maduro’s promise to hold free and fair elections, partly influenced by secretive negotiations with the U.S. State Department. However, the opposition has faced setbacks, with leading candidates barred from running and supporters detained.

Despite skepticism about Maduro’s willingness to relinquish power, international observers, including the Carter Center and the UN, will monitor the election, raising hopes for a fair process. Laura Dib, a Venezuela expert, noted, “If there’s massive participation with international observation… that could create some avenues.”

A fair election could lead to a mass return of migrants. Endel Gonzalez, a migrant in Bogota, said, “If there’s a new government, I’d go back the same day… there won’t be enough planes for everyone to return home.”

The outcome also has implications for the U.S. Biden’s administration has faced pressure to address the migration crisis, with over 260,000 Venezuelans apprehended at the U.S. border in 2023. A democratic transition in Venezuela could reduce migration, easing tensions at the U.S. border.

The Biden administration has supported negotiations, partially lifting oil sanctions and resuming repatriation flights. A democratic Venezuela could improve bilateral relations and shift Caracas away from alliances with China, Russia, and Iran.

With both Venezuela and the U.S. facing elections this year, the outcomes could significantly impact migration policies and international relations.