Tensions are escalating between the United States and Mexico, not over migration, but water. The countries share water from the Colorado River and the Rio Grande under an 80-year-old treaty. However, severe droughts have left Mexico struggling to meet its water delivery obligations.

Farmers in South Texas are particularly hard-hit, facing potential agricultural collapse due to Mexico’s shortfall. Some Texas politicians are urging the Biden administration to withhold aid from Mexico until it fulfills its water commitments. The hope for many is that a storm will replenish Mexico’s drought-stricken rivers, but experts warn this is an unreliable solution for a complex, long-term issue.

Under the 1944 treaty, Mexico must deliver 1.75 million acre-feet of water from the Rio Grande to the US every five years, while the US sends 1.5 million acre-feet annually from the Colorado River to Mexico. Currently, Mexico is behind on its deliveries, exacerbated by climate change and over-extraction of water. The Rio Grande, once a robust river, now often runs dry along significant stretches, a condition worsened by dwindling snowpacks in the Rockies.

Both countries have historically relied on this water, but since the 1990s, water availability has decreased, causing heightened political tensions. The problem is compounded by rising demand due to increased development and the effects of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), which spurred agricultural and industrial growth in Mexico.

In Texas, the water shortage has already caused significant damage. The state’s only sugar mill closed in February, and the citrus industry is also at risk. Some US lawmakers are calling for punitive measures against Mexico, but the scarcity of water affects both nations. Mexico is experiencing its worst drought since 2011, with nearly 90% of the country affected and major cities at risk of running dry.

Ultimately, the solution lies in adapting water-sharing agreements to a changing climate. Experts argue for cooperation rather than confrontation, emphasizing that both countries are suffering due to climate change. Recognizing this shared challenge is crucial for developing sustainable water management strategies.