May 16, 2024 – As the war in Ukraine continues, Russia and China have displayed a solidified alliance, characterized by both military and economic support. This partnership, however, reveals deeper complexities within their relationship and significant geopolitical implications.

Military and Economic Support

China’s support for Russia has been multifaceted. Despite China’s official stance of neutrality, it has provided critical military assistance to Russia. Chinese construction equipment was instrumental in building Russian fortifications along the Surovikin line, and Chinese all-terrain military vehicles have been deployed on the front lines​ (The Diplomat)​. These vehicles, though initially light and unarmored, have played a direct role in the combat operations in Ukraine.

Economically, China’s financial backing has been crucial for Russia. Chinese banks, such as the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) and the Bank of China, have significantly increased loans to Russia, with figures jumping from $2.2 billion before the war to nearly $9 billion since its onset​ (The Diplomat)​. The renminbi’s use in Russia has also surged, helping to stabilize the Russian economy amid Western sanctions and a drastic drop in oil and gas revenues​ (The Diplomat)​.

Diplomatic Dynamics

The recent meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Beijing underscored their strong political ties. This meeting, coinciding with the Belt and Road Forum, was marked by significant symbolism as Xi hosted Putin despite the latter’s international pariah status due to the invasion of Ukraine​ (The Diplomat)​.

However, tensions lurk beneath the surface. China’s advancement in clean energy and its assertive stance in energy negotiations indicate a shift in leverage within the relationship. Beijing’s push for renewables was a notable theme during the summit, highlighting Russia’s growing dependency on China for economic and political support​ (The Diplomat)​​ (The Diplomat)​.

Impact on Sino-U.S. Relations

China’s position on the Ukraine conflict has further strained its relations with the United States. The U.S. perceives China’s failure to condemn Russia as implicit support, exacerbating existing tensions between the two superpowers​ (The Diplomat)​. Both countries view the conflict through the prism of their broader strategic rivalry, making cooperation on this issue highly challenging.

China’s policy aims to balance its relations with all parties, including Russia, Ukraine, the U.S., and Europe. This balancing act reflects China’s broader strategy of avoiding extreme positions while maintaining its national interests. However, the U.S. continues to pressure China to choose a side, leading to heightened diplomatic friction​ (The Diplomat)​.

Conclusion

While Russia and China present a united front in the face of the Ukraine conflict, their alliance is underpinned by complex economic dependencies and geopolitical strategies. As the war continues, this partnership will likely face further tests, influenced by broader international dynamics and internal economic pressures.